I trade, but I want to be honest about what that means right now: mostly crypto, some equities, and mostly on paper, not real money.

我做交易，但现在这到底是什么状态，我想老实说清楚：主要是加密货币，也碰一点股票，而且大多 是在模拟盘上跑，不是真金白银。

I have a folder of strategies and I'm still experimenting. I let AI generate and test them, watch what survives, kill what doesn't. I wouldn't call myself a quant yet. That word has to be earned, and I haven't earned it.

我有一整个文件夹的策略，还在不停试。我让 AI 去生成、去测，看哪些活得下来，把不行的淘汰掉。 我还不会管自己叫「量化」。这个词得靠本事挣来，而我还没挣到。

What I do have is a view. The market is a casino — especially the secondary market. Most of what moves it is noise; something like ninety percent is sentiment, people following the crowd, and a thin slice is the few who actually know something. You never really know what it'll do next, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

我有的是一个看法。市场就是个赌场——尤其是二级市场。推动它的大多是噪音；大概九成是情绪， 是跟着人群走的人，只有薄薄一层，是真正懂点门道的少数人。你永远没法真正知道它下一步会怎么走， 谁要是跟你说他知道，那他多半是在推销什么。

So the edge, if there is one, isn't a magic indicator. It's a sharp mind and first principles — actually understanding the thing instead of reacting to it. That's the real reason markets interest me at all. They're a clean, brutal test of whether your reasoning is right. The money is just the scoreboard.

所以优势——如果真有的话——不是什么神奇的指标。是一颗清醒的脑子和第一性原理——真正搞懂 这件事，而不是被它牵着反应。这才是市场真正吸引我的地方。它是一场干净又残酷的测验，专门测 你的推理对不对。钱，只是那块记分牌而已。